Slovakia’s Fico Faced Trump’s Madness Amid Nuclear Deal (January ’26 in CEE)
This is the monthly recap.The real action happens weekly — subscribe to How we cee it. Week 5 Slovakia’s Fico Faced Trump’s Madness Amid Nuclear Deal Source: FB…
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Week 5
Slovakia’s Fico Faced Trump’s Madness Amid Nuclear Deal
Prime Minister Robert Fico has positioned himself in the orbit of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin ever since he returned to power in 2023.
But, frankly, he has not been alone. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán plays essentially the same game.
Polish President, Karol Nawrocki, is certainly not pro-Russian, but he is very much a fan of Trump. Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, often labelled as pro-Russian, is in reality more authentically pro-Trump.
Last week, however, something happened that may signal Fico is breaking from the pack.
Fico’s government decided to launch a process that would lead to the construction of a new nuclear power reactor at the Jaslovské Bohunice plant. Although it would be the largest project in Slovak history, with investments reaching at least €15 billion, the government chose the builder without a proper public procurement process.
Instead, Fico directly selected the American company Westinghouse for the job.
To move the deal forward, Fico flew to sign a nuclear agreement with the administration of Donald Trump. He presented the meeting with Trump as a success on social media, but then suddenly fell silent, offering no details about the encounter.
Instead, he rushed to the EU summit in Brussels and then to Paris to visit French President, where he staged a “strategic awakening”, according to Emmanuel Macron.
On Tuesday, Politico shed some light on Fico’s silence. According to five sources cited by the outlet, Fico expressed concern about the US president’s “psychological state,” saying Trump came across as “dangerous” during their face-to-face meeting at Mar-a-Lago on January 17, according to two diplomats.
Both Fico and the White House have denied Politico’s report.
Russian Rockets Stop Heating, but Not Ukrainian Unicorns
Even amid the deepest humanitarian crisis since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, a Ukrainian startup became a unicorn last week.
Ukrainian language-learning platform Preply raised $150 million in a Series D led by WestCap, doubling its valuation to $1.2 billion and making it Ukraine’s newest tech unicorn.
Preply, therefore, joins the ranks of AirSlate, Creatio, GitLab, People.ai, Unstoppable Domain,s and Grammarly, the other unicorns the country has produced.
It is the third Ukrainian startup to reach unicorn status since February 24, 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
Estonia Pulls Back on War Rhetoric, but Continues Defence Ramp-Up
I spent the past week in Estonia assessing the threat Russia poses to the region and how the country is preparing for a possible war. Here’s what I found:
No one can feel truly safe with Russia as a neighbour. Still, Russia’s military capacity is currently absorbed by the war in Ukraine, leaving it with little ability, for now, to mount a large-scale attack on NATO.
The Estonian government has deliberately highlighted the Russian threat to justify a rapid defence buildup and to push Europe to rearm. Officials now concede they may have overdone it and are shifting toward a more balanced message, partly to avoid deterring foreign investors.
Even so, once the fighting in Ukraine ends, the Baltics, and NATO more broadly, may have as little as six months to prepare for a potential Russian escalation.
If Russia were to consider an invasion, the Baltics and Nordics are not bluffing and are prepared to defend themselves — provided the US remains in NATO and continues to supply critical intelligence, reconnaissance, command, and heavy-lift capabilities.
Estonia, in particular, stands out for modernising its defence practices and equipment, buoyed by high public morale and a population willing to defend the country. In a crisis, it could draw on up to 600,000 reservists.
Week 4
Czech CSG Scores the Biggest IPO in Defense History
Source: HWCI/CSG
Arms manufacturer Czechoslovak Group completed its €3.8 billion initial public offering on January 23, becoming the most valuable company in the Czech Republic. The stock jumped 28% when trading began in Amsterdam, marking the largest defense IPO in history.
The listing also vaulted CSG’s owner, Michal Strnad, to the position of the richest person in the Czech Republic.
According to Kurzy CZ, companies in Europe’s arms and defense industry have benefited particularly from the actions of US President Donald Trump over the past year and this year.
His pressure on NATO member states to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, his unpredictable stance on the future of the alliance, the rapid intervention in Venezuela, and efforts to secure Greenland—or at least parts of it—for the US have lifted the shares of European arms manufacturers more than Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine itself.
For CSG, the rearmament trend has translated into a golden age. In the first three quarters of 2025, the group increased revenues by more than 82% to €4.5 billion.
CSG focuses on the production of products, systems, and technologies for defense, aerospace, automotive, and other industries. It operates manufacturing facilities in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Spain, Italy, India, the UK, and the US. Its key subsidiaries include Czech vehicle manufacturer Tatra Trucks; Slovak artillery and ammunition producer MSM Group; US small-caliber ammunition maker The Kinetic Group; and Czech radar manufacturer Eldis.
The Strnad family, which controls the company, maintains close ties with Slovak Defence Minister Robert Kaliňák, a NATO-friendly minister serving in a pro-Russian government.
Drone Makers, Grid Intelligence, Highlighted at the Estonian Startup Awards
Estonia’s startup ecosystem closed out another strong year, reinforcing its position as one of the key engines of the country’s economy. The sector now includes around 1,800 startups employing roughly 17,000 people, and together they generated €10 billion in revenue.
The industry grew 18% year on year, and technology now contributes 4.3% of national GDP.
This momentum was on display at the annual Estonian Startup Awards, which recognize the companies and individuals driving the ecosystem forward. This year’s winners included:
• KrattWorks – A defense-technology company developing drones and autonomous drone systems.
• Gridraven – A startup focused on increasing the transmission capacity of power grids.
• Veriff – Estonia’s well-known identity-verification company, providing online ID checks for global clients.
• Pactum – A negotiation-automation platform that uses AI to help large enterprises renegotiate supplier contracts.
• Skeleton – A deep-tech company developing energy-storage solutions for AI datacenters.
• Alpa Kids – An ed-tech startup creating educational mobile games for preschoolers, their parents, and kindergarten teachers.
• Muun Health – A digital health startup developing the first wearable real-time hormone monitoring device.
• Defense Tech Meetup – Recognized for building a fast-growing community around Estonia’s expanding defense-technology sector.
How a World War II Property Law Is Driving a Wedge Between Hungary and Slovakia
They should have been left in the past, but instead they continue to traumatize landowners in Slovakia to this day. The decrees of Czechoslovak president Edvard Beneš, which became law after World War II, allowed—among other measures—for the confiscation of German and Hungarian property.
The controversial legislation, based on the concept of collective guilt, has returned to the center of political debate in Slovakia and Hungary in recent weeks. The trigger was the fact that Slovak state authorities began proactively referring to postwar confiscation decisions and filing lawsuits even in cases where no one had been aware that a particular plot of land was once subject to state expropriation. This has repeatedly led to absurd situations.
After the Slovak opposition party Progressive Slovakia drew attention to the issue, the government of Prime Minister Robert Fico moved to criticize the Beneš decrees, punishable by law, writes the Days Until the Hungarian Elections newsletter. The step also provoked criticism from Hungarian politicians, primarily from the opposition. Opposition leader Péter Magyar entered into a sharp exchange of messages with Slovak President Peter Pellegrini and Prime Minister Fico.
Week 3
US Ambassador Advised the Czech Foreign Minister to Refrain From Denmark’s Support Over Greenland
A number of countries, including the Baltics, Poland, and even Slovakia, expressed support and solidarity with Denmark in light of recent US threats to annex Greenland, which is part of Danish territory.
But while its neighbours did not hesitate to stand with a fellow EU member at a moment of historic pressure, the Czech Republic remained conspicuously quiet. The reasons can be inferred from a leaked protocol of a meeting between the new Czech minister of foreign affairs, Petr Macinka, and the US ambassador in Prague, Nicholas Merrick.
According to reporting and fact-checking by Deník N, Greenland was a key topic of the discussion, and Macinka expressed that if there were a way for the Czech government to actively contribute to strengthening the alliance’s position in the Arctic, Prague would be ready to get involved.
Merrick then stressed the need to perceive “The broader context of Trump’s statements and not to react to individual remarks or provocations by people associated with the US administration.”
The ambassador warned that direct public criticism of Trump’s statements would change nothing and discouraged the Czech side from joining a joint statement by a group of European leaders.
According to the document, the ambassador therefore advised Macinka to refrain from public proclamations in response to American threats to Greenland.
Macinka acted in line with these recommendations and did not side with the EU countries. According to two sources cited by Deník N, he refrained from supporting Denmark precisely because of the discussion with the US ambassador.
The Small Country on the Path to Becoming CEE’s Detroit
Slovakia’s automotive industry association has cut its projection for future production. According to the industry group, the country will produce only about one million cars, down from the previously expected 1.25 million, Denník N reports.
In other words, Slovakia, the world’s largest car producer per capita, with the automotive sector responsible for more than a tenth of its GDP, will manufacture fewer cars with five factories than it did before the pandemic, with just three plants.
Slovak carmakers are no longer receiving as many new models from their multinational parent companies as they did in the past. Without new models, production is gradually being scaled back.
The drop in car production due to weaker demand is a Europe-wide trend, and Slovakia has actually performed relatively well. However, it has undermined its competitiveness with recent increases in taxes and social contributions introduced as part of efforts to consolidate the state budget.
Moldovan President Would Vote for Unification With Romania
Moldovan President Maia Sandu said she would vote in favor of reunification with Romania if such a referendum were held.
The unusual stance of the head of a sovereign state will likely never be put to a real test, as no such referendum is on the horizon. Still, it is a testament to the situation of Europe’s poorest country as it struggles to find stable ground in a world increasingly dominated by strongman politics.
Sandu won re-election on a pro-EU platform and faced a large-scale hybrid operation by Russia aimed at undermining her campaign.
“It is increasingly difficult for a small country like Moldova to defend itself,” Sandu said in an interview on The Rest Is Politics podcast.
Week 2
CEE Backs Ukraine Security but Shuns Troop Deployments After Coalition of the Willing Meeting
Leaders of more than 30 countries met in Paris on Tuesday to discuss a plan to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine in the event that a truce is agreed. The UK and France have signed a declaration of intent to deploy troops in Ukraine if a peace deal is reached with Russia, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced.
Under the plan, the UK and France would establish military hubs across Ukraine to deter any future invasion, with thousands of troops potentially deployed. Allies also largely agreed on the need for robust security guarantees for Ukraine and proposed that the US would take the lead in monitoring a possible truce.
The proposal could, however, deter Russia from accepting any ceasefire. It also leaves open the question of what would happen if Western units were to come into direct combat with Russian forces in the event of a truce being breached. Because of these reasons, some commentators called this plan a mirage.
For the new Czech prime minister, Andrej Babiš, who has only recently formed a new government with the far-right SPD party, the Paris meeting marked his first day with the Coalition of the Willing. His attendance was linked to expectations surrounding the future of the Czech ammunition initiative, a breakthrough effort to organise collective procurement of ammunition for Ukraine among European states. The initiative became a hallmark of the foreign policy of the previous Czech government led by Petr Fiala.
On the ammunition initiative, the Czech Republic has cooperated primarily with the Netherlands and Denmark. Last year, Ukraine received 1.8 million rounds of ammunition, and more than four million rounds have been delivered over the entire lifetime of the initiative.
After the summit in Paris, Babiš announced that the Czech government would no longer allocate money from the state budget to the ammunition initiative for Ukraine. However, the programme could continue only if other countries finance it.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also reiterated in Paris that Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, but said the country will play a leading logistical role.
Romanian President Nicuşor Dan likewise stated that Romania is not changing its position on support for Ukraine and is not considering deploying troops to Ukrainian territory. Instead, Romania will participate in logistical support, provide training for Ukrainian soldiers in Romania or other European countries in cooperation with allied armies, and take part in joint armaments programmes.
Notably, Hungary and Slovakia did not attend the meeting, despite forming part of NATO’s eastern flank, further isolating the two countries, both of which are led by pro-Russian governments.
Czech Startup Investment Declines as Capital Clusters Around Established Players
Startups in the Czech Republic raised half a billion euros in investment last year, a decline of nearly 8% year on year, according to 2025 data from Rolu.
Just over half of that amount, however, was accounted for by the three largest deals. Capital flowing into more “grown-up” startups that have been operating for around a decade — Cera, Mews, and Exaforce — made up about 52% of the total.
The total value of exits rose by a fifth to €140 million in 2025, but remains significantly lower than in 2022 and 2023.
New Year, Old Problems: Another Fiber Optic Cable Cut in the Baltic Sea
The damage follows a similar episode just days earlier. On the final day of 2025, two undersea telecommunications cables between Estonia and Finland were cut. One was operated by Finnish telecoms group Elisa, the other by Sweden’s Arelion.
The incidents echo events from almost exactly a year earlier, when special units of the Finnish Coast Guard boarded the Eagle S, a tanker believed to be part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” and secured the vessel. Investigators later determined that the ship had dragged its anchor along the seabed, severing critical power and data cables — an episode that was only one in a wider series of troubling incidents in the region.
This is the monthly recap.
The real action happens weekly — subscribe to How we cee it.
